Insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

The insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, also known as the War in North-West Pakistan or Pakistan's war on terror, is an ongoing armed conflict involving Pakistan and Islamist militant groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Jundallah, Lashkar-e-Islam (LeI), TNSM, al-Qaeda, and their Central Asian allies such as the ISIL–Khorasan (ISIL), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkistan Movement, Emirate of Caucasus, and elements of organized crime. Formerly a war, it is now a low-level insurgency as of 2017.

The armed conflict began in 2004 when tensions rooted in the Pakistan Army's search for al-Qaeda fighters in Pakistan's mountainous Waziristan area (in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas) escalated into armed resistance. Pakistan's actions were presented as its contribution to the U.S. War on terror. The al-Qaeda terrorists fled Afghanistan seek refuge in the bordering Federally Administered Tribal Areas. Pakistan had already joined US led War on terror after 9/11 attacks under the Mussharaf administration. However, after the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001–2002, Al-Qaeda and its Taliban patrons crossed over Pakistan-Afghanistan border to seek refuge in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas, Pakistan. Resultantly, militants established control over seven tribal agencies of FATA.

Pakistan Army under the Pervez Musharraf administration launched operations with Battle of Wanna to hunt down al-Qaeda fighters. However, Pakistan security forces did not target Afghan Taliban as Taliban were not responsible for the twin-tower attacks. Subsequently, Pakistan Army failed to achieve its desired results. Pakistan Army's failure resulted in the Waziristan Accord which is considered to be failure on the part of army and Pervez Musharraf as the accord ceded FATA territories to the militants.

The situation in FATA further complicated with the emergence of Tehreek-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Local Pakistani jihadi fighters that have previously fought Soviets, with support from Central Asian militant groups, Arab fighters of al-Qaeda, in 2007 formed TTP. The foreign militants were joined by Pakistani non-military veterans of the Afghan War to the west, which subsequently established the TTP and other militant umbrella organisations, such as Lashkar-e-Islam.

The TTP, beside FATA, managed to capture four settle districts of North-Western Frontier Province (modern day Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa). The districts such as Buner, Dir, Shangla and Swat fell out of writ of Government of Pakistan by 2007 as militants flashed into mainland of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa further expanding their influence beyond peripheries of FATA.

The TTP emerged as one of the most lethal group aiming to overthrow Government of Pakistan in Islamabad and replace it with a Taliban-style government as it denounced Pakistan alliance with US against the principals of Islam. TTP declared its jihad was legitimate as Pakistan was siding with US to attack a Muslim nation Afghanistan.

The insurgency turned into a critical issue for Pakistan when the Pakistan Army held a siege on the mosque of Lal-Masjid Islamabad to free foreigners taken hostage by the militants. Naming this operation as an attack on the "House of Allah", TTP declared Pakistan Army as an agent of Western powers and started a bloody campaigns of suicide bombings throughout the country. Due to the Lal-Masjid Operation number of suicide attacks jumped from 10 in 2006 to 61 in 2007. Pakistan Armed Forces also bore the burnt of number of terrorist attacks such as PNS Mehran attack, Kamra Airbase attack, and GHQ Rawalpindi attack.

The deteriorated law and order situation saw assassination of former prime minister Benazir Bhutto in 2007 which was also claimed by the TTP. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto led to the demise of President Pervez Musharraf regime.

Pakistan with the exit of Pervez Musharraf got a fresh civil-military setup under the President Asif Zardari-led government of PPP in 2008. Pakistan Army also witnessed a change of guard. Its new COAS Ashfaq Pervez Kayani decided to take on TTP and its allies. Under General Kayani's tenure Pakistan turned the tide in its war against terrorism. In to order contain the militants General Kayani launched series of military campaigns to recapture areas fallen in the hands of militants from 2007 to 2013 beginning with Operation Sherdil. This campaign that launched by Kayani ended with success of Operation Zarb-e-Azb in late 2016. Pakistan Army under the Kayani Doctrine was able to capture six tribal agencies and four settled districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa including Swat and South Waziristan, which were two strongholds of TTP.

The last operation Zarb-e-Azb was conducted by the Kayani's successor General Raheel Sharif to purge last remaining agency of North Waziristan from the clutches of TTP. Thus, Pakistan Armed Forces successfully recaptured seven tribal agencies of FATA and four districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa by conducting a bloody armed campaign from 2007 to 2016.

With help of military campaigns Pakistan Army was able to push back TTP into Afghanistan from where it continues to launch terrorist attacks on Pakistan. By 2014, the casualty rates from terrorism in the country as a whole dropped by 40% as compared to 2011–2013, with even greater drops noted in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa despite a large massacre of schoolchildren by TTP terrorists in the province in December 2014. The reduction in hostilities eventually changed the conflict from a war to a relatively low-level conflict.

The TTP after success of Operation Zarb-e-Azb 2016 lost territory within Pakistan that is why terrorists started to act in the form of sleeper cells by 2017. To continue their nefarious activities Jamat-ul-Ahrar, one of offshoot of TTP launched Operation Ghazi in 2017 to reignite the insurgency. Pakistan Army in order to counter Operation Ghazi of TTP and sanitize country from the remaining militants, abettors, facilitators, and sleeper cells launched Operation Radd-ul-Fasaad under its commander COAS Qamar Javed Bajwa. This operation was launched in order clean-off militants that escaped across country due to army's earlier campaigns in FATA. The operation was aimed at consolidating efforts of previous military campaigns.

As a result of Radd-ul-Fasaad, TTP suffered huge losses and divided into various splinter groups that weakened its operational capabilities. According to Delhi-based South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP) 2019 was post peaceful year for Pakistan since the time of start of insurgency in 2004. According to SATP, The suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2019 was decreased to 8 from record high of 85 in 2009.

Pakistan Army under the command of General Bajwa started to fence 2600 kilometer long Pakistan-Afghanistan border in 2017 and construct around 1000 military forts in order to capitalize on gains that it has made against the militancy in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa. Around 67 wings of Frontier Corps were raised to patrol the bordering areas. Moreover, FATA under 25th Amendment in 2018 was merged with Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa in order to bring it under the ambit of Constitution of Pakistan so that it could be governed more effectively. The 25th Amendment replaced colonial-era constitutional framework of Frontier Crime Regulation.

Since the fall of Kabul in August 2021, Pakistan is confronted with renewed threat of terrorism as TTP has been injected with fresh dose of strength due to the victory of Taliban in Afghanistan. The fresh recruits, easy access to US made weapons, and a sanctuary under the shadow of Afghan Taliban have once again bolstered the TTP to again target Pakistan. Resultantly Pakistan suffered 13 suicide attacks by the end 2022.

In 2022 After negotiations, the TTP and the government announced a ceasefire in June 2022. However, in November 2022, the TTP renounced the ceasefire and called for nationwide attacks against Pakistan.

On 7 April 2023, Pakistan's National Security Committee under leadership of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif decided to launch a new military operation to root out militants posing threats to its western regions. The meeting was also attended by the Pakistan's new military leadership COAS Asim Munir and CJCSC Sahir Shamshad Mirza.

The war has depleted the country's manpower resources, and the outcomes outlined a deep effect on its national economy, since Pakistan had joined the American-led War on Terror. As of 2018, according to Ministry of Finance (MoF) statistics and mathematical data survey collections, the economy has suffered direct and indirect losses as high as $126.79 billion since 2001 because of Pakistan's role as a "frontline state". According to the MoF-issued Pakistan Economic Survey 2010–2011, "Pakistan has never witnessed such a devastating social and economic upheaval in its industry, even after dismemberment of the country by a direct war with India in 1971."