Credibility (international relations)

In international relations, credibility is the perceived likelihood that a leader or a state follows through on threats and promises that have been made. Credibility is a key component of coercion (i.e. compellence and deterrence), as well as the functioning of military alliances. Credibility is related to concepts such as reputation (how past behavior shapes perceptions of an actor's tendencies) and resolve (the willingness to stand firm while incurring costs). Reputation for resolve may be a key component of credibility, but credibility is also highly context-dependent.

Credibility may be determined through assessments of power, past reputation, current interests, and signaling. Situational and dispositional factors may affect perceptions of credibility. Misperception and miscommunication can lead to erroneous assessments of credibility. Assessments of reputation may be linked to specific leaders, as well as states.