2023–24 Australian bushfire season
The 2023–24 Australian bushfire season is the current season of bushfires in Australia. The spring and summer outlook for the season prediction was for increased risk of fire for regions in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia and the Northern Territory.
| 2023–24 Australian bushfire season | |
|---|---|
| Date(s) | August 2023 – present |
| Location | Australia |
| Statistics | |
| Burned area | Approximately 1,445,372 square kilometres (558,061 sq mi) |
| Impacts | |
| Deaths | 10 |
| Structures destroyed | 170+
|
| Ignition | |
| Cause | Fire ignitions Enhanced fires
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Next season → | |
Above average temperatures and below average rainfall occurred for most of Australia. The fuel load growth was elevated due to above average rainfall associated with prolonged La Niña atmospheric conditions over the previous 3 years. A significantly dry and warm winter over much of Australia in 2023 elevated the fire risk associated with these fuel loads.
Other major contributing factors to the elevated fire risk included a strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean, an indicator for dry and hot weather patterns for eastern and southern Australia. Additionally, a sustained positive Indian Ocean Dipole lead to drier conditions in southern and central Australia. Global sea surface temperatures had continued to be the warmest on record since April 2023, while July 2023 had been the hottest month on record for global air temperatures. These trends continued with Australia's winter becoming the hottest on record. August, September and October continued this trend by being within the top 5 hottest and driest months on record, running approximately 3.38 °C above average and rainfall 70.8% below average in September.
Anthropogenic climate change influenced these conditions with Australia's climate warming approximately 1.47 °C in the last 110 years, leading to longer fire seasons and higher frequency of dangerous fire weather days.
Other significant factors for a elevated fire season are over the past several years the number of days to conduct controlled burns have been lower compared to past years with NSW RFS reporting they have only been able to conduct around 20% of their Hazard Reduction targets. Leading to extensive fuel load build up, the previous 3 years of La Niña conditions enabled rapid vegetation growth throughout the landscape adding to the already high fuel loads. Areas which were impacted in the 2019–20 Australian bushfire season have fully regenerated, putting those communities back into potential risk.
Early into the season fire agencies reported that fire behaviour was similar or worse than the 2019–20 bushfire season, with the Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) Deputy Commissioner stating that it is the worst in 70 years.
The current fire season burnt over 61 million ha (150,734,282 acres) by November, already burning more than the entirety of the 2019–20 bushfire season.